As the conflict in Novorossiya appears to be drawing to its inevitable conclusion the skankworks.net asks, what next for the Kiev Junta (Russian: киевская хунта)
There was never any doubt that NATO would not allow Donbass to secede. The sudden halt in the slide of Ukraine’s post-coup currency that occured simultaneously to the Kiev visit by US Vice-President Joe Biden (whose son owns hydrocarbon-exploitation rights in Donbass) suggests a US bank-rolling. Since then NATO powers, such that they are, have been supplying whatever arms, political cover, and news-blackouts as the Junta may require to ‘get the job done’, as retired-military talking heads on TV like to say.
The ‘job’ here, is something that, on paper at least, the Ukraine armed forces should have been able to ‘do’ by the end of June. The Novorossiya ‘rebels’ themselves predicted that they could not hold out beyond July 12th. What really should have been a cakewalk has been a humiliation. The spirit of the hero cities dotted all around Southern Russia region has been re-awakened, but it wasn’t on Kiev’s side. Any victory that comes to Kiev will be a pyhrric one, and raises more questions than it answers.
What exactly was the role of the Ukraine armed forces in Donbass? The mass-defections in Crimea, particularly among naval forces, suggests that the military in Ukraine may be just as divided as the civil population. Why did Kiev have to rely on hastily-drafted conscripts, foriegn mercenaries, and the thugs of pravy sektor? What comes next?
After so much destruction of civilian life and property, Kiev Junta is hardly in a position to offer any reconciliation, and are likely to have a hostile population to contend with for some considerable time. The use of armed force in Donbass to prevent secession, however, does give Kiev legal claim over those territories. Yet, if it were now to refrain from using armed force against Crimea, it would weaken Kiev’s claim there. And that, is the likely next stage.
After the mopping-up in Donbass, Kiev – no doubt under orders from Washington – will be sending its conscript army into Crimea to face either the Russian military directly, or be shot by Pravy Sektor if they refuse. Recovery of Crimea is policy to the Junta. Give it six to eight weeks to finish the ATO and reposition, then the real fireworks start.
We expect Putin to be blamed.